Rarest WorldNot Normal
← FieldNot·Normal
ESPERANZA BASE +2.20σ ESPERANZA BASE +2.20σ
Surface interpolated between 53 instruments — a model, not a measurementnormal 1951 – 1980

temperature · Antarctica

Esperanza Base, Antarctic Peninsula

February peak daily maximum

Modelled demonstration series · not observed data

Modelled 202614.0 °Cnormal 9.8 °C
vs 1951–1980+2.20σ99th pct
vs 1991–2020+1.00σ84th pct
Return interval1 in 72 yearsagainst 1951–1980
In the seriesRank 5 of 76no new record
People200rounded estimate

Almost nobody lives here, so the population figure understates it badly. What this reading affects is ice: melt ponds on shelf surfaces, meltwater working into crevasses, and the slow structural weakening of the floating buttresses that hold land ice back from the sea. The consequences of this tile are measured in coastlines elsewhere.

75 years, modelled

1960198020002020 17.2 5.7
Grey: modelled annual values 1951–2025. Band: 1951–1980 mean ±1σ. Coloured: the modelled 2026 reading.

Same reading, two normals

NormalMeanσPctReturn
1951–19809.8 °C+2.20σ99th1 in 72 years
1991–202011.7 °C+1.00σ84th1 in 6.3 years

Today would rank 5 of 76 for highest value in the modelled series. Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.

Documented real-world record · well documented

18.3 °C — 6 February 2020

Esperanza Base recorded 18.3 °C, verified by the World Meteorological Organization as the highest temperature measured on the Antarctic continental mainland.

Read the record →

The season here

February is high summer on the peninsula — the one time of year the northern tip can climb well above freezing.

Where this series comes from

MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published Esperanza February climatology. The 75 annual values are synthesised. The real-world record cited separately is documented and is NOT part of this modelled series.

Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Esperanza Base, Antarctic Peninsula. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.

How to read σ

σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.

More temperature stations

Open Esperanza Base on the field →
Open Esperanza Base on the field →