Rarest WorldNot Normal
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CONINGSBY +4.20σ CONINGSBY +4.20σ
Surface interpolated between 53 instruments — a model, not a measurementnormal 1951 – 1980

temperature · United Kingdom

Coningsby, Lincolnshire

July peak daily maximum

Modelled demonstration series · not observed data

Modelled 202638.0 °Cnormal 27.9 °C
vs 1951–1980+4.20σ99.999th pct
vs 1991–2020+2.90σ99.81th pct
Return interval1 in 75,000 yearsagainst 1951–1980
In the seriesHighest of 76old record stood 20 yrs
People4.3 millionrounded estimate

British housing is built to hold warmth in, which is exactly the wrong design for this reading. There is almost no domestic air conditioning, so the indoor temperature simply follows the outdoor one up and then stays there overnight. A single day at this level does more harm here than a fortnight of it would in a place built to expect it.

75 years, modelled

1960198020002020 38.0 23.2
Grey: modelled annual values 1951–2025. Band: 1951–1980 mean ±1σ. Coloured: the modelled 2026 reading.

Same reading, two normals

NormalMeanσPctReturn
1951–198027.9 °C+4.20σ99.999th1 in 75,000 years
1991–202028.7 °C+2.90σ99.81th1 in 530 years

Today would be the highest value in the entire 75-year modelled series. Past the series' standing high of 35.3 °C (2006). Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.

Documented real-world record · well documented

40.3 °C — 19 July 2022

Coningsby reached 40.3 °C — the first time 40 °C was recorded anywhere in the United Kingdom.

Read the record →

The season here

British summer peaks are short and plume-driven — hot air drawn north from Iberia for a day or two, not a season of heat.

Where this series comes from

MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published eastern-England July climatology. The 75 annual values are synthesised. The real-world record cited separately is documented and is NOT part of this modelled series.

Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Coningsby, Lincolnshire. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.

How to read σ

σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.

More temperature stations

Open Coningsby on the field →
Open Coningsby on the field →