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ARCTIC OCEAN (BASIN-WIDE) −8.60σ ARCTIC OCEAN (BASIN-WIDE) −8.60σ
Surface interpolated between 53 instruments — a model, not a measurementnormal 1951 – 1980

Documented record · well documented

Arctic Ocean (basin-wide)

September minimum sea-ice extent · Arctic

Recorded3.39 million km²
WhenSeptember 2012
Source statuswell documenteddocumented, not modelled

The National Snow and Ice Data Center recorded an Arctic September minimum extent of about 3.39 million km² — the lowest in the satellite record, which begins in 1979.

Why a record is measured against the place

A number on its own says very little. 3.39 million km² would be unremarkable in one climate and unthinkable in another. What makes a record matter is its distance from what that place, at that time of year, has historically produced — its own normal.

Not Normal expresses that distance in standard deviations (σ) from a thirty-year baseline. Two σ above normal is reached in roughly 1 year in 44 under the baseline climate; four σ above, roughly 1 year in 32,000.

Modelled demonstration series · not observed data

The same place on the field

Not Normal carries a modelled 75-year series for Arctic Ocean (basin-wide) (September minimum sea-ice extent) that demonstrates the reasoning above. It is synthesised from published climatology, not observed, and is kept apart from the documented record on this page.

See the modelled series →

The season here

September is when Arctic ice reaches its annual minimum — the number that summarises how much survived the melt season.

Read more

What a sigma anomaly means · Return periods, explained

Other documented records

Open Arctic Ocean (basin-wide) on the field →
Open Arctic Ocean (basin-wide) on the field →