precipitation · Spain
Valencia
October maximum daily rainfall
Modelled demonstration series · not observed data
This is the most dangerous shape a rainfall chart can take: a long, flat, unremarkable record with one bar that leaves the frame. Flash flooding does not care about annual totals. A warmer sea evaporates more, warmer air holds more, and the storm that finally organises drops all of it on one catchment in one afternoon.
75 years, modelled
Same reading, two normals
| Normal | Mean | σ | Pct | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1951–1980 | 74 mm | +5.20σ | >99.999th | 1 in 10 million years |
| 1991–2020 | 84 mm | +4.12σ | 99.998th | 1 in 53,000 years |
Today would be the highest value in the entire 75-year modelled series. Past the series' standing high of 197 mm (1997). Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.
The season here
Autumn on this coast is when a cut-off low meets a Mediterranean that has spent all summer storing heat. The result is called a DANA.
Where this series comes from
MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published Valencia October daily-rainfall climatology; lognormal transform applied because daily-maximum rainfall is strongly right-skewed. The 75 annual values are synthesised by the seeded generator.
Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Valencia. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.
How to read σ
σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.
More precipitation stations
Open Valencia on the field →