precipitation · Philippines
Manila
July–September rainfall total
Modelled demonstration series · not observed data
Metro Manila is low, flat, dense and partly below the level of the bay at high tide. Land subsidence from groundwater extraction has lowered parts of it faster than the sea has risen. A wet season this far above normal does not need a record storm to flood the city — it only needs the ground to already be saturated.
75 years, modelled
Same reading, two normals
| Normal | Mean | σ | Pct | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1951–1980 | 1450 mm | +1.90σ | 97th | 1 in 35 years |
| 1991–2020 | 1529 mm | +1.66σ | 95th | 1 in 20 years |
Today would rank 4 of 76 for highest value in the modelled series. Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.
The season here
The south-west monsoon, repeatedly enhanced by passing typhoons. Manila's wet season totals are driven by how many storms track close enough to pull the monsoon onshore.
Where this series comes from
MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published Metro Manila wet-season climatology; lognormal transform applied. The 75 annual values are synthesised by the seeded generator.
Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Manila. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.
How to read σ
σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.
More precipitation stations
Open Manila on the field →