snowpack · United States
Wasatch Range (Alta), Utah
1 April snow water equivalent
Modelled demonstration series · not observed data
A high anomaly on a declining trend, and worth sitting with. Enormous single years still happen and will keep happening; they do not cancel the trend, and the trend does not forbid them. Anyone who reads one exceptional winter as evidence that nothing is changing is making the same error as anyone who reads one drought as proof.
75 years, modelled
Same reading, two normals
| Normal | Mean | σ | Pct | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1951–1980 | 1120 mm | +2.20σ | 99th | 1 in 72 years |
| 1991–2020 | 1109 mm | +3.24σ | 99.940th | 1 in 1,700 years |
Today would rank 3 of 76 for highest value in the modelled series. Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.
The season here
Lake-effect snow off the Great Salt Lake adds substantially to Wasatch totals — a mechanism that weakens as the lake itself shrinks.
Where this series comes from
MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published Wasatch 1 April snow-water-equivalent climatology. The 75 annual values are synthesised by the seeded generator.
Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Wasatch Range (Alta), Utah. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.
How to read σ
σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.
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