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ROCKALL TROUGH +1.30σ ROCKALL TROUGH +1.30σ
Surface interpolated between 53 instruments — a model, not a measurementnormal 1951 – 1980

wave height · International waters

Rockall Trough, North Atlantic

Winter mean significant wave height

Modelled demonstration series · not observed data

Modelled 20264.85 mnormal 4.30 m
vs 1951–1980+1.30σ90th pct
vs 1991–2020+1.03σ85th pct
Return interval1 in 10 yearsagainst 1951–1980
In the seriesRank 11 of 76no new record
Peopleno resident populationrounded estimate

Nobody lives here, so the population column reads zero, and that is misleading. This water is crossed by most of the shipping between Europe and North America, and significant wave height is the number that decides whether a route is taken or a crossing is delayed. Its trend also sets the design load for every offshore structure downwind.

75 years, modelled

1960198020002020 5.56 3.58
Grey: modelled annual values 1951–2025. Band: 1951–1980 mean ±1σ. Coloured: the modelled 2026 reading.

Same reading, two normals

NormalMeanσPctReturn
1951–19804.30 m+1.30σ90th1 in 10 years
1991–20204.45 m+1.03σ85th1 in 6.6 years

Today would rank 11 of 76 for highest value in the modelled series. Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.

The season here

The North Atlantic in winter has the longest sustained fetch of any ocean basin in the northern hemisphere. Nothing stops the swell before Ireland.

Where this series comes from

MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published North Atlantic winter significant-wave-height climatology. The 75 annual values are synthesised by the seeded generator. Significant wave height is the mean height of the highest third of waves — individual waves regularly exceed it substantially.

Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Rockall Trough, North Atlantic. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.

How to read σ

σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.

More wave height stations

Open Rockall Trough on the field →
Open Rockall Trough on the field →