Rarest WorldNot Normal
← FieldNot·Normal
GULF OF BOTHNIA −1.50σ GULF OF BOTHNIA −1.50σ
Surface interpolated between 53 instruments — a model, not a measurementnormal 1951 – 1980

sea ice · Finland / Sweden

Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea

Annual maximum ice cover

Modelled demonstration series · not observed data

Modelled 202688 thousand km²normal 155 thousand km²
vs 1951–1980−1.50σ7th pct
vs 1991–2020−1.07σ14th pct
Return interval1 in 15 yearsagainst 1951–1980
In the seriesRank 10 of 76no new record
People1.3 millionrounded estimate

Baltic ice records are among the longest continuous environmental series in the world, kept because shipping needed them. Less ice sounds like straightforwardly good news for navigation, and for shipping it is. For the ringed seals that need stable landfast ice to raise pups, it is the opposite.

75 years, modelled

1960198020002020 290 33
Grey: modelled annual values 1951–2025. Band: 1951–1980 mean ±1σ. Coloured: the modelled 2026 reading.

Same reading, two normals

NormalMeanσPctReturn
1951–1980155 thousand km²−1.50σ7th1 in 15 years
1991–2020119 thousand km²−1.07σ14th1 in 7.0 years

Today would rank 10 of 76 for lowest value in the modelled series. Nothing about the reading changes between rows — only the yardstick.

The season here

The Baltic freezes from the north down. Maximum ice cover is reached in late February or March and varies hugely between winters.

Where this series comes from

MODELLED SERIES — not observed. Parameters set from published Baltic maximum ice extent climatology. The 75 annual values are synthesised by the seeded generator.

Every number on this page comes from a modelled series: 75 annual values synthesised by a seeded generator from published climatological parameters for Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea. It shows how anomaly reasoning works. It is not a measurement and must not be cited as one.

How to read σ

σ counts standard deviations from this place's own normal. The sigma guide · return periods.

More sea ice stations

Open Gulf of Bothnia on the field →
Open Gulf of Bothnia on the field →